The euro has shown signs of weakness, experiencing a slight decline recently. This trend is not merely coincidental; it reflects underlying economic data that presents a concerning picture for the eurozone's growth trajectory. As the markets grapple with changing circumstances, pessimism regarding the economic outlook of the euro area intensifies, akin to a heavy hammer falling onto the euro’s upward momentum.

Concurrently, the UK central bank's recent policy decisions have escalated market apprehensions regarding a slowdown in British economic growth. Institutional investors are strategically preparing for further depreciation of the pound. For instance, to begin the year, investment firms such as BNY Mellon significantly reduced their pound holdings, while others, like Hartford Funds and Russell Investments, followed suit with substantial cuts to their exposure. RBC BlueBay Asset Management has indicated that, given expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of England, there remains potential for additional reduction of the pound positions they have already diminished. Shaniel Ramjee, a portfolio manager at Pictet, emphasized the current precarious economic landscape in Britain, arguing that sustained demand for the pound is hard to foresee. His own adjustments have led him to minimize pound exposure to the bare minimum required within his investment portfolio since the beginning of the year.

This unsettling trend within the UK economy highlights the urgent need for Chancellor Rachel Reeves to deliver on her promise to accelerate fiscal measures aimed at boosting economic growth. Reflecting on the past two years, the pound gained traction in the forex market due to expectations that UK interest rates would remain significantly higher than those of many G10 nations. However, with the economic landscape in flux, and UK economic data becoming increasingly unpredictable, that once solid viewpoint now seems disconnected from reality. The pound is lacking essential supporting factors, flagging economic growth and calling for decisive action from the Chancellor to reverse the current malaise.

In the meantime, the chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), Philip Lane, has shared pivotal insights regarding the direction of monetary policy. When determining the extent of potential interest rate cuts, Lane has emphasized the importance of closely monitoring dynamic economic data, rather than overly relying on the widely endorsed neutral rate concept. He has articulated that as current rates approach levels that no longer impede economic growth, discussions surrounding neutral rate engage in diminishing relevance concerning practical decision-making. Lane stressed that in an environment where inflation remains significantly above the 2% target, monetary policy exhibits notable restrictiveness, which is easily recognized. However, as inflation inches closer to target levels, the specific focus of discussions should transition to identifying the appropriate level of interest rates. His remarks have sparked intensified debate within the financial community regarding the extent to which interest rates should be lowered further as inflation approaches its target. Since last June, the ECB has already cut the deposit rate five times, bringing it down to 2.75%, with market expectations pointing towards at least three more cuts within the year.

On Friday, the US dollar index experienced upward volatility, recovering the 108.00 mark and reaching a three-day peak, trading around 108.30 later in the day. This movement has been supported not only by short-covering but also by a mixed US non-farm payrolls report, which reinforced the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve might remain steady in its approach in the short term. As a result, the dollar gained additional backing. Moving forward, the focus today will be on potential resistance around the 108.80 level, with support clustered near 107.80.

Last Friday, all eyes turned toward the euro's performance in the foreign exchange market, which revealed an overall downtrend amid intense buying and selling pressure. Consequently, the euro barely clung to the critical 1.0300 threshold, reaching a fresh three-day low, concluding the session around 1.0320. The euro's decline was driven by multiple factors. A noticeable profit-taking wave emerged as previously accumulated gains prompted investors to lock in profits, adding downward pressure to the exchange rate. Concurrently, substantial technical selling near the 1.0400 threshold provided significant resistance at a critical juncture. Additionally, the rebound of the dollar index intensified the euro’s decline, as the strong dollar inherently posed challenges for the euro. Economic data from Germany also exacerbated concerns regarding the eurozone’s outlook, with declines in manufacturing PMIs and industrial output contributing to the increasingly pessimistic sentiment surrounding the euro’s prospects. As we look ahead, the market's attention is keenly focused on the pressure surrounding the 1.0400 level; if the euro fails to breach this resistance effectively, its upward movement may face constraints. Conversely, support is anticipated around 1.0250, and a drop below this level could precipitate even more significant declines.

On the same day, the pound also displayed a downward trend, recording a minor decline and trading around 1.2400. Profit-taking alongside technical selling near the 1.2500 threshold played a role in exerting downward pressure on the currency, compounded by the dollar index’s rebound. Additionally, the impact of the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England continues to reverberate, contributing to the bearish sentiment surrounding the pound. As for today, traders should remain vigilant regarding resistance levels near 1.2500, with support likely materializing around 1.2300.